Gareth Soloway has been right more often than he has been wrong this cycle. He called the oil rally. He called the subsequent 30% pullback to below $70. He called silver’s decline toward $50. He called bitcoin’s bounce to $83K and its subsequent slide. That does not make him infallible — he is the first to say he is right roughly 70% of the time — but it does mean his framework is worth engaging seriously, especially when that framework is pointing at hard assets as the next major accumulation window.
What follows is CI Mavericks’ synthesis of Soloway’s recent public commentary, distilled through our own macro lens. We hold direct positions in gold, Argentine energy assets, and real assets across multiple jurisdictions.
Part One: The Setup — A Flush Before the Floor
Soloway’s near-term view on precious metals is not bullish. It is, deliberately, bearish in the short run — and that is exactly why it is interesting.
Silver: The Anatomy of a Flush. After the parabolic move to $120, the technical damage requires a return to the prior breakout zone. Soloway identifies $54 as first support and $50 as the key level — the 1980 high, the 2011 high, the zone where the chart wants to “come home.” He is not apologetic about the call. He is, as he puts it, starting to get “ants in his pants” to buy at $50. This is not pessimism. It is the setup.
Gold: The Wedge Resolves. The wedge pattern forming between the downsloping trendline (currently ~$4,300) and support near $3,880–$3,980 will eventually resolve in one direction. Soloway leans toward a flush to $3,500 before the real move begins. His reasoning is identical to silver’s: the weak hands who bought into the parabolic move above $5,000 need to be shaken out before the secular bull thesis can resume. Below $4,000, he has standing buy orders every $100. That is not a crash thesis. That is a shopping list.
Bitcoin: The Line in the Sand. The $50,000 level is the line in the sand — technically, it would bring price back just below the 2021 cycle high, completing the four-year drawdown pattern that has characterised every prior cycle. Soloway is a long-term bitcoin bull. He simply sees the flush to sub-$50K as probable before the next leg higher, driven by a combination of AI trade unwinding, dollar strength, and the debasement trade temporarily going dormant.
Part Two: Why the Fundamentals Are Being Temporarily Overridden
The core tension in the metals market right now is between structural fundamentals and sentiment-driven price action — and Soloway is clear that sentiment wins in the short run, every time.
The bull case for silver is not in dispute: six-year supply deficit per the Silver Institute, surging industrial demand from photovoltaics, data centre grid expansion, and electrification, plus the monetary store-of-value premium. None of that has changed. What has changed is the psychology of the marginal holder. Investors who bought silver at $80, $100, $120 are sitting on losses and approaching the “throw in the towel” moment. When that capitulation happens — when the fear overpowers the fundamental conviction — you get the flush, and you get the floor.
Soloway raises the possibility, openly, that central banks and sovereign buyers are not passive observers in this process. If you are accumulating silver by the tonne, you do not want to do it at $120. You want retail scared and selling so you can absorb the supply at a discount. Whether or not one accepts the full implication of that observation, the directional logic is consistent with what we are seeing in the price action.
Physical delivery is also rising — increasingly divorced from the futures-contract paper market on Comex and LBMA. The emergence of Eastern exchanges with genuine physical settlement changes the structural dynamics over the medium term, even if it does not resolve the near-term sentiment overhang.
Part Three: The Longer View — Where This Goes
Soloway’s long-term numbers are worth sitting with, even for sceptics.
The through-line connecting all three is the U.S. debt trajectory. During periods of economic expansion, a functioning government pays down debt. The U.S. has instead accelerated its debt accumulation during what was ostensibly a period of growth. When the slowdown Soloway anticipates arrives in late 2026 or early 2027, the fiscal response will almost certainly involve more money creation — and that is the debasement thesis on its firmest structural footing.
His bullish case for bitcoin in the longer term mirrors his thesis on gold: the moment the Fed shifts to rate cuts and quantitative easing, capital that has been sitting in AI semiconductors will rotate back into monetary alternatives. Even a 1–2% reallocation from the semiconductor complex into bitcoin would be enough to push it back to all-time highs.
Part Four: Where CI Mavericks Stands
We are not trading the near-term flush. We hold physical gold and have positioned accordingly for the longer secular move. What Soloway’s framework gives us is a disciplined accumulation logic: a defined price zone ($3,500–$4,000 gold, $48–$54 silver, sub-$50K bitcoin) where the risk/reward is asymmetrically favourable relative to the long-term thesis.
Our members have been asking when to add to hard asset positions. The answer, structurally, is: when the weak hands are finished selling. We are approaching that zone. The patience required is not passive — it is active positioning against a known flush.
If the debasement thesis is right, the numbers Soloway cites are not aggressive. They are conservative.